I promise to stop with lead problems very soon. But here are just a couple more which I've seen recently in issues of Bridge World.
The first comes from the February issue where you are dealt:
West (You)
A K J 3 2
5 4
8 6 3
10 7 2
NS are vulnerable in a teams match and the auction began with South and was uncontested: 1NT – 2C – 2S – 3NT – All Pass
What do you lead?
The second problem comes from the 2011 US Trial final match. You are West again on an uncontested auction: 2NT – 3NT – All Pass. Without much strength your odds of breaking this contract aren't that great. The opponents are non-vulnerable, select a lead from
West (You)
K Q 7 5 2
Q 9 6 5
4
10 8 2
I'll post up some simulation results later on, but I don't expect these answers to be too difficult to hit upon.
So the answer to the first hand is pretty clear cut. You have enough spades to know that this is your best chance to break the contract. But to lead a high or a low one? Everyone who led one said "low" and this is right. It's just a fact of life that the number of hands where partner has a doubleton and has an entry (or has the spade queen even) outnumber those where you can still take it off after starting with the king.
ReplyDeleteSecond hand is a little closer, but the top spade comes out best here by about 2% or so. This is probably mitigated somewhat by the issue of declarer guessing right with Jxx opposite A9x, but I don't think these ones account for enormous numbers. A quick browse of hands where the spade king beats the spade five (and vice versa) are peppered with fairly easy examples. Here's a more amazing one where the spade king is the only lead to beat 3NT double dummy! I've added it to the post above... at the bottom.
ReplyDeleteInteresting - somehow at the table I'd have both times led small without any further thought (a technical comment - it might be better to lead 2 spades on board one, as partner will know anyway how many spades we have, and the declarer won't).
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