More hands incoming

It's been a busy first week of term so I've not had much time to post, especially given I've played 121 boards since Wednesday too. On the play side that means there are soon to be lots of hands to post. Anyone reading this who wants to point me towards the more interesting of the 98 hands at the Pairs & Swiss event in Spondon this weekend feel free to do so in the comments below or by email.

I'll be using the hands to pose some interesting declarer play articles soon. I was dealt a lot of interesting cards and got to play a surprising number of interesting contracts this weekend so as long as I manage to get on top of my lecture-prep there might be a bumper number of hands this week.

Don't forget to go make comments on the slam hand a post or two back if you want a hand to comment on in the meantime.

Quick suit combinations: the answer

Here was the question again.

How do you play the following suit at matchpoints?

Dummy

A Q 10 8

Hand

4 3 2

Which very similar line actually achieves a higher expected number of tricks?

And now for what I think is the answer (with the help of the nifty program "suitplay"):

I'll call the best two lines A and B. Both Lines A and B play initially to the eight, and repeat any marked finesses on the second round if the eight loses to an honour. The hands where they differ are when the eight loses to the nine. Note that Line A plays to the Ten next, while Line B plays to the Queen next, Line A being the dominant line as far as beating all other lines.

The table below presents the number of tricks won by Lines A and B after the eight loses to the nine on the first round.

West	East	Percentage		Line A: To 8, then to Ten then Ace	Line B: To 8, then to Queen then Ace	A beats B	Trick Difference
KJxx	9x	4.8%	Tricks	3	2	✔	+1x4.8% = 4.8%
KJxxx	9	1.2%	Tricks	3	2	✔	+1x1.2% = 1.2%
Kxxx	J9	1.6%	Tricks	1	3		-2x1.6% = -3.2%
Kxx	J9x	5.3%	Tricks	2	3		-1x5.3% = -5.3%
Jxxx	K9	1.6%	Tricks	2	1	✔	+1*1.6% = 1.6%

Line B, however, wins more tricks on average, slightly, because of the two-trick gains when the Jack is offside and the King onside to at least three.

Slam play problem

You manage the bid the backs off the cards and reach 6 on the following pair of hands, West overcalled 2 and East raised to three over partner's 2 (GF), opposition were then silent. West then led the king of clubs and East followed with the nine:

South Dealer

Both Vuln.

MPs

6 by S

North

A 6

K Q 10 7 6

Q 7 2

7 6 5

South

K J 5 3 2

A 4

K J 8 5 4 3

—

Plan the play.

Quick suit combination

How do you play the following suit at matchpoints?

Dummy

A Q 10 8

Hand

4 3 2

Which very similar line actually achieves a higher expected number of tricks?

A question about defences to Asptro/Astro

A recent hand at the club has encouraged me to ask some questions about how people deal with Asptro/Astro-related interference over 1NT (usually weak).

As a quick reminder, Astro normally means that 2 shows at least 5-4 or 4-5 shape in hearts and a minor; and that 2 shows at least 5-4 or 4-5 shape in spades and any other suit. Whereas in Asptro both of the conventional overcalls can have both majors, with anchoring ("initial showing") to the weaker major.

This post isn't going to be about Lebensohl, or Rubensohl, or even Transfer Lebensohl (though a post about those will come at some point). Initially I just wonder what the following bids should mean.

Your side opens 1NT, LHO overcalls 2 showing spades and another suit. Are the following bid meanings standard in your partnership?

• Double = Value showing, 8+ with interest in penalizing something.
• 2Natural, non-forcing to play.
• 2Natural, 5+ invitational and forcing for one round.

I suspect most people play the double as value-showing, though whether it explicitly has interest in penalizing spades is probably not normal. I also suspect most people play 2 as natural non-forcing. But what does 2 mean? Have you got an agreement with partner that it shows a genuine spade suit with interest in game? Or does it show an invitational hand with hearts? Time for a poll to find the answer: hopefully I give enough possibilities:

What does 2 mean after Astro/Asptro showing at least four spades?

Do try and choose one of the options above if it roughly describes your agreement and give more precise details in comments. I imagine you might play it as a game force, which sometimes has four low spades and four hearts, and will bid 3NT next.

A couple more lead problems...

I promise to stop with lead problems very soon. But here are just a couple more which I've seen recently in issues of Bridge World.

The first comes from the February issue where you are dealt:

West (You)

A K J 3 2

5 4

8 6 3

10 7 2

NS are vulnerable in a teams match and the auction began with South and was uncontested: 1NT – 2C – 2S – 3NT – All Pass

What do you lead?

The second problem comes from the 2011 US Trial final match. You are West again on an uncontested auction: 2NT – 3NT – All Pass. Without much strength your odds of breaking this contract aren't that great. The opponents are non-vulnerable, select a lead from

West (You)

K Q 7 5 2

Q 9 6 5

4

10 8 2

I'll post up some simulation results later on, but I don't expect these answers to be too difficult to hit upon.

North

10 6

J 7

K J 9 7 3

9 7 6 3

West

K Q 7 5 2

Q 9 6 5

4

10 8 2

East

9 4 3

8 3 2

Q 10 6 2

A Q 5

South

A J 8

A K 10 4

A 8 5

K J 4

Good enough for game? (Simulations to come)

So you pick up the following fabulous hand, non-vulnerable, at pairs:

North (You)

T 8 7 6 4 2

—

Q 9 7 6 5

9 5

Your partner kindly opens the bidding with 2NT (20-22 balanced). Should you transfer and bid 4S? How good a proposition do you reckon 4S will be?

I'm preparing a post sometime soon on the Deal program made by Thomas Andrews. Where I'll go into more detail about this very nice piece of software. I've already run some simulations for double-dummy play in a spade contract above opposite various balanced NT range hands. I'll put the answers up in due course.

Leading against 1NT-3NT

Some of you may have already got your copies of the book published last year by David Bird and Taf Anthias. I only recently got mine but thought I'd share with you an example problem from it as a demonstration of what it contains (it contains lots of examples) and how surprising some of its suggestions are. Just before I start I need to set the scene. Imagine you are West, South opened the bidding with 1NT (15-17) and North raised directly to 3NT (without using Stayman, so probably without a four-card major). Finally assume you're playing a teams match and you have to select your lead from the following beauties:

West (You)

10 3

K 8 5 2

9 8

Q 10 7 6 2

How would you rank the leads, to give your side the best chance of defeating the contract?

I'll just ask you to guess the correct order (best first) between the 10, the 2 and the 6:

If you want to know where the answers are derived from, what the book does is to simulate a large number of hands and select just those where North and South have hands consistent with the 1NT-3NT auction. For each of these, perfect defence and play are assumed and it's worked out which leads succeed and which fail. After lots of simulations you can get a good idea of how good the different leads are.

For bonus points, have a go at the 'easier' problem of finding the best lead from:

A Q 8 2    A Q 9 6    9 7 3    J 10

(on the same 1NT-3NT auction)

High level auction

Another matchpoint problem today, this one's just a bidding poll. I'm afraid you'll have to put up with my system to start you off. First you get to see you hand.

South (You)

A 5 4

T 3

2

A K Q 10 9 7 4

The auction so far (NS Vulnerable):

West North East South 11 4 6 Pass ???

¹ = 4+ and 14+ HCP; or 15+HCP balanced.
You don't have any particular agreement about a double of 4, feel free to suggest what you think it should be in the comments. I suspect I would take it as suggesting penalties if opener has a strong NT hand. Now to the poll, what's your next bid?

(after you've voted you can find partner's hand below)